Spare us the bloodshed

So here's what's happening in Burundi. President Pierre Nkurunziza is seeking a 3rd term in an upcoming election, but a significant population in his country do not agree; so they've opted to protest. Bujumbura, the disorganized city on the shores of lake Tanganyika is now a war zone and could get worse. A brief history would tell you where the situation is heading. Nkurunziza, a University lecturer, son of a Tutsi mother and a Hutu father, escaped death in 1995 when Tutsi-dominated army attacked and killed 200. His father had been killed in 1972 in a different civil war. His 5 siblings were all killed in war.

After the escape he joined the National Council for the Defense of Democracy-Forces for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) rose over the ranks and was appointed president in 2005 unanimously by parliament following a peace agreement signed in Arusha. He managed to bring on board the FNL, a Hutu rebel group to the peace table and formed an inclusive government (both Hutu, Tutsi, all gender). Then, many countrymen saw him as a unity leader given his multi-ethnic origin.

Over the years, Burundi's population has grown (10.2 million in 2013) with >50% aged 15-24 years. Now, given harsh economic times, thanks to conflict and politics, a youth wing of the ruling party was formed in 2010 (Nkurunziza's 2nd term), the Imbonerakure (the Kirundi word for “those that see far”). They conduct surveillance and intimidation on behalf of the state; unfortunately they've mutated to conduct acts like sexual harassment, extortion and theft. They are also Hutu-dominated. In the current political unrest, as recently as yesterday, they posted leaflets threatening to kill Tutsi's and have joined police (wearing full police gear with guns) shooting at protesters. Obviously they are protected by the state. Although Burundi's constitution allows for only 2 presidential terms, the Constitutional court of Burundi ruled in favor of Nkurunziza, arguing that his 1st term was a direct appointment by parliament and did not count as a constitutional term in office.

Unfortunately and far too often, political conflicts in Africa always degenerate into ethnic conflicts. Let's hope this is not another genocide in the making. AU as usual is silent until ICC comes knocking. This president has won many awards for his peace efforts over the years. Burundians hope he will act as the uniting factor he has always been and will be sensible enough to see the suffering of his people. He of all people knows the cost of war, having lost almost his entire family to fighting. Nkurunziza must act now and unite his people. Arusha 2005 agreement was too costly to throw to the dogs. Dialogue is the key!

Phillip- Peace and Conflict researcher

Taming Northern Kenya's conflict

Nadome, Kapedo, Lokori, Lomelo, Todonyang, Loiyangalani, Lorogon, Kainuk etc. Anyone who’s been to these villages would tell you how vast, rural, rudimentary and 15^th centrury-ish they are. Yet the most striking thing about these places is that they turn into war-zones often.

At 71598km², Turkana County is 103 times the size of Nairobi County with no significant development - no roads (seasonal rivers or laga have been converted into roads), few buildings if any. Divide the county amongst all the 41 million Kenyans and each one gets 2/5 of an acre, enough to put up a maisonette. That is how vast the county is! However, the population is 4 times less than that of Nairobi. Inhabitants are dominantly the Turkana community who don’t see eye to eye with the neighbouring Pokot to the South, the wild Ethiopian Merille (Daasanach) to the North, Karamojong to the West and Samburu to the South East. A common practice among all these communities is cattle rustling, often retaliatory.

But I’ll focus on the Pokot-Turkana conflict. Yester-years the raiders only collected cattle and goats and shot at anyone who stood in their way; but increased ethnic rivalry has made things worse. One of my visits to Kainuk, Turkana South is unforgettable. The Pokot gave notice to the Turkana of their intention to raid that night and for sure they came as we sought shelter in a GSU camp in Lorogon village. These fellows sweep every living thing they find with a bullet, just like Biblical times during Israel’s wars. A bullet is never wasted, must be on-target. A drive through Kapedo, Lomelo, Lokori, Ngamia 1 to Lokichar from Marigat sends chills as you meet armed curious young men firing bullets at birds and wild game. Occasional flash floods would prolong the 7 hour journey to 1 or 2 days.

Visitors or strangers must be careful as they can trigger instant shooting by Turkana/Pokot young men some barely in their teens who roam the jungles armed with AK 44 automatic rifles. Heheee…guns are toys here. The situation is the same in neighbouring West-Pokot, Samburu North/East/Central and East Pokot (Baringo). Thanks to the fluorine-filled Lake Turkana which separates Marsabit and Turkana Counties to the East, otherwise it could be another conflict zone. A complex mix of issues motivates the Northern Kenya conflict. Competition for resources driven by perennial drought, bad politics and ethnic rivalry. One other phenomenon, increasingly difficult to understand, and which has exacerbated the conflict, is the proliferation of small arms and light weapons (SALW) in the region which has been driven by political shrewdness, regional wars and forced immigration from next-door warring countries.

So how do you expect the government to pacify these communities? First, the area is too vast for the few policemen we have. As at 2012, Kenya had just about 70 to 80,000 officers, 10,000 guard VIPs, 45,000 are APs assigned to County/District Offices, others are in prisons, leaving about 20,000 to do daily policing in the whole country, some of whom control traffic. You will need between 10 and 15,000 police, heavily armed (not with AK47s or G3 rifles) to contain wild fellows with automatic rifles. Second, raiders understand their terrain more than an ordinary Kiganjo-trained officer. Suguta valley, Baragoi, arguably the hottest place in the country is a good case study. Third, media reports indicate that political leaders finance raiders. Some of these cattle are stolen, slaughtered and packaged for sale to Nairobi and other towns. You probably had stolen beef for dinner last night. Fourth, poorly paid officers in this region sell bullets at as low as kes.200. Sad situation.

I do think there’s hope though. The Marakwet-Pokot conflict of the 80s and 90s came to an end. Even with a complex mix of culture, bad politics, SALW and competition for resources, the conflict ended, thanks to peace and dialogue meetings promoted by local political and religious leaders as well as the national government. Some would say Elgeyo-Marakwet is a tinier county than Turkana and Pokot, but I think conflict in the Turkana and Pokot region is concentrated at the border points and so is controllable despite the vastness. The national security organs have valuable lessons to learn from the process that ended the Marakwet-Pokot conflict. I think Gedion Moi’s drone technology should also work well in this area for surveillance. Phillip #NadomeIsKenya #Nadome